Evaluation of the Kenya Hunger Safety Net Programme - Phase 3

Contents

• Overview
• Phase 1 (2008–2012): Piloting a cash safety net#legacy
• Phase 2 (2013–2018): Expansion and shock response
• Phase 3 (2019–2024): Scaling up and transition to government
• From pilot to policy legacy

Overview

The Hunger Safety Net Programme (HSNP) is one of Kenya’s longest-standing flagship social protection programmes. It is a government-led unconditional cash transfer programme that was launched in 2007 as a pilot in response to chronic food insecurity in the country’s arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs), where traditional food aid had long been the norm. HSNP marked a shift away from in-kind food assistance towards predictable cash transfers, providing the poorest households with the flexibility and dignity to meet their own needs.

Starting in four counties (Marsabit, Turkana, Mandera, and Wajir), the programme has evolved from a small pilot to a fully government-owned system now managed by the National Drought Management Authority (NDMA). Today, HSNP delivers regular payments to over 125,000 poor households, with proven capacity to rapidly scale up during crises such as drought or the COVID-19 pandemic. Over three phases, HSNP has helped to institutionalise government-led cash delivery in some of Kenya’s ASAL regions and is now fully managed by, and integrated into, Government systems.

Oxford Policy Management (OPM) has been HSNP's core evaluation and technical support partner across all three phases, providing independent monitoring, evaluation, and evidence that has directly informed policy decisions and programme improvements. Our over 15-year partnership has helped institutionalise government-led cash delivery in some of Kenya's hardest-to-reach regions, strengthened local systems, facilitated financial inclusion, and built national capacity to manage both chronic poverty and climate-related shocks.

During HSNP Phase 3, we also evaluated the pilot of the Economic Inclusion Programme (EIP) - an innovative "cash-plus" approach that tested combining cash transfers with skills training, asset transfers, and mentoring. This work forms part of our broader 15-year contribution to Social Protection in Kenya, in which we have supported the Government of Kenya in building integrated safety net systems.

HSNP Phases

Phase 1 (2008–2012): Piloting a cash safety net

HSNP Phase 1 tested whether predictable cash transfers could offer a more cost-effective and dignified alternative to emergency food aid in Kenya’s arid lands. The pilot covered 69,000 households across four drought-prone counties (Marsabit, Mandera, Turkana, and Wajir), trialling different targeting methods to reach the poorest.

OPM's independent impact evaluation: we conducted a rigorous mixed-methods impact evaluation, combining experimental design with qualitative research to assess outcomes on poverty, food security, and livelihoods. The evaluation used a community-randomised controlled trial approach, comparing beneficiary and control communities to measure programme impact.

Key findings: The evaluation demonstrated that HSNP Phase 1 was effective in reducing vulnerability - beneficiary households were 10% less likely to fall into the poorest income decile compared to control groups. Regular cash transfers improved food consumption and reduced dependency on negative coping strategies, even in remote, drought-prone regions.

Policy impact: These findings provided crucial proof of concept that directly informed national policy decisions. The evidence supported HSNP's inclusion in Kenya's broader social protection framework and built the case for Phase 2 scale-up, marking a strategic shift from food aid to cash transfers in Kenya's social protection policy. 

Phase 1 Outputs:  

• HSNP Phase 1 Impact Evaluation Final Report
• HSNP Phase 1 Impact Evaluation Executive Summary
• HSNP Phase 1 Qualitative Impact Evaluation Summary

Phase 2 (2013–2018): Expansion and shock response 

Building on the success of the pilot, Phase 2 expanded HSNP's coverage and introduced a groundbreaking shock-responsive mechanism. Regular bimonthly cash transfers were delivered electronically to over 120,000 households in the four counties. A major innovation was the addition of a scalable response system: during shocks, HSNP could quickly deliver emergency top-ups to up to 272,000 additional households using pre-determined triggers and beneficiary lists. This positioned HSNP as one of Africa's first operational shock-responsive safety nets.

OPM's comprehensive evaluation: OPM led the independent evaluation of Phase 2, covering household impact, local economy effects, qualitative research, and operational monitoring. The evaluation combined quantitative impact assessment using regression discontinuity and propensity score matching with in-depth qualitative research and Local Economy-Wide Impact Evaluation (LEWIE) analysis.  

Key findings: The evaluation confirmed that cash transfers increased food consumption, livestock ownership, and household creditworthiness. Emergency payments, though smaller and less predictable than regular transfers, provided critical support during droughts. Local economy modelling showed strong multiplier effects: for every KES 1 transferred, local income rose by KES 0.38 to 0.93, demonstrating significant economic spillovers beyond direct beneficiaries.

Evidence for scale-up: OPM's evaluation provided compelling evidence on the effectiveness and value for money of both routine and shock-responsive cash transfers. These findings directly informed HSNP's integration into the National Safety Net Programme (NSNP) and shaped the design of Phase 3, including improvements to transfer adequacy, payment reliability, targeting systems, and plans to fully integrate HSNP into NDMA. 

Phase 2 Outputs:  

• HSNP Phase 2 Quantitative Impact Evaluation Technical Report  
• Local Economy-Wide Impact Evaluation (LEWIE) Report
• Emergency Payments Pilot Process Review  
• Assessment of Harmonised Targeting Methodology Pilot  

Phase 3 (2019–2024): Scaling up and transition to government

HSNP Phase 3 marked a major milestone in the programme’s evolution, doubling geographic coverage to eight arid and semi-arid counties and laying the groundwork for full transition to government management and financing. Approximately 130,000 households were scheduled to receive regular monthly transfers, with an expanded shock-response mechanism able to reach up to 700,000 additional households during periods of drought. Phase 3 prioritised institutional sustainability by transferring core programme functions to the National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) and strengthening systems for fully government-led delivery.  

OPM’s role and support areas

As the Monitoring, Evaluation and Knowledge (MEK) partner, we provided strategic, technical and evaluative inputs across four main areas:

1. Operational monitoring: we supported the development of the monitoring system to track payments, registration, and grievance resolution across eight counties. Regular monitoring updates informed programme adjustments and culminated in a synthesis report outlining delivery challenges and recommendations.
2. Transition monitoring and capacity support: To support the transition of HSNP from a donor-financed Project Management Unit (PMU) to full government ownership, OPM assessed NDMA’s capacity to manage the programme and integrate its key functions – including payments, monitoring and evaluation, and audit – into NDMA systems. This was complemented by six rounds of transition monitoring, measured against a structured transition framework to track progress, flag risks, and guide adjustments.
3. System strengthening: we undertook technical reviews of HSNP's Management Information System (MIS) and informed improvements in data flow and system integration, supporting the transition to government ownership.
4. Demand-driven studies and deep dives: Beyond its core workstreams, we undertook additional research responding to emerging priorities. These included a deep dive evaluation of the FCDO-funded COVID-19 cash transfer in urban areas (Nairobi and Mombasa) and technical reviews of HSNP’s Management Information System (MIS), which informed improvements in data flow and system integration.  

Evidence for sustainability: Despite funding delays and budget constraints, Phase 3 demonstrated that large-scale, government-led cash transfer programmes can be sustained and scaled. Evidence from operational and transition monitoring enabled course corrections during the transition, strengthened M&E systems, improved delivery mechanisms, and enhanced feedback systems

Phase 3 Outputs

• HSNP3 Operational Monitoring Briefing Note
• HSNP3 Operational Monitoring Synthesis Report
• HSNP3 Transition Monitoring Briefing Note
• HSNP3 Transition Monitoring Synthesis Report

The reports listed above represent only some of the key evaluation outputs from HSNP's 15+ years of evidence generation. 

From pilot to policy legacy

15 years of evidence-informed evolution: our long-term role, from evaluating the initial HSNP pilot to supporting the Phase 3 transition, means each phase of HSNP was grounded in evidence and able to adapt to changing needs and contexts. This long-term engagement enabled continuous learning and course corrections that strengthened the programme's design and delivery.  

Demonstrating government capacity: Phase 3 proved that large-scale, government-led cash transfer programmes can be sustained and scaled even amid significant challenges. Despite funding delays, payment interruptions, and budget constraints, the programme continued to operate and adapt. Evidence from operational and transition monitoring was systematically used to strengthen M&E systems, improve delivery mechanisms, and enhance feedback processes during the critical transition period.

Building institutional resilience: The evidence generated throughout HSNP's evolution directly informed capacity building within NDMA and other government institutions. Monitoring data flagged implementation challenges in real-time, enabling rapid responses and system improvements. This approach helped build not just a programme, but institutional capabilities for managing complex social protection systems.

Policy influences beyond HSNP: HSNP's evidence base has influenced Kenya's broader social protection landscape. The programme's shock-responsive innovations informed the design of Kenya's National Safety Net Programme and contributed to the country's new social protection policy framework. The operational lessons learned have been applied across Kenya's integrated safety net system.